Systematix Research has issued an initiating coverage report on Time Technoplast (TIME) with a BUY rating and a target price of Rs 615 (56% upside potential), based on 22x FY27E P/E.
The research house is optimistic on its value-added composite products (LPG and CNG cascade cylinders), stable and long-standing industrial packaging (drums, jerry cans, IBC etc.) business, and focus on improving financials to turn debt free over the next 2-3 years.
TIME is a) a leader in India and among the top 3 players globally in industrial packaging and composite products, and b) a market leader and largest manufacturer of large size plastic drums globally, with an impressive 50-60% market share in India and high share in 10 countries present globally. Post 17%/17%/28% CAGR in revenue/ EBITDA/PAT over FY22-24, we estimate 15%/17%/27% CAGR over FY24-27E, respectively, led by strong performance in its value-added products (VAP) segment (20% revenue CAGR, 18%+ EBITDA margin).
It is stated that despite annual capex of Rs 1.5-1.7bn, we estimate pre-tax RoCE to expand from ~16% in FY24 to ~23% in FY27 on healthy operating performance, improved plant efficiency and lower net working capital cycle (by 10-15 days).
Systematix estimates annual operating FCF of Rs 4bn+ over the next 3 years, which TIME will likely use to pare debt and achieve net cash status in FY27E (net debt of ~Rs 6bn in FY24). Healthy OCF/EBITDA (60%+) and FCF/PAT (80%+) over the next 3 years is also estimated. Management has also identified Rs 2.5-3bn of non-core, non-performing assets that it intends to disinvest over FY25-FY26 (not in our estimates). It will likely use the proceeds to fund capex, reduce debt and reward shareholders. Any delay in order inflow of composite LPG cylinders and CNG cascades pose key risks to our estimates.
It is worth noting that Time Technoplast is held in the portfolio of Prashant Jain’s 3P Fund.
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